Mining & Trade News

Introduction

In 2024, the Malawi government launched the Agriculture, Tourism and Mining (ATM) strategy as a vehicle to accelerate the country towards the 2063 vision. It was the first time mining was being elevated to the level of long-prioritised industries like agriculture, a clear statement by policymakers recognising the significant potential of Malawi's mineral resources in transforming the country's socio-economic status. However, much of this attention has been directed toward the conventionally defined critical mineral resources like rare earths, rutile, graphite, and others. This focus is not misplaced. But it is incomplete.

There is a category of mineral resources whose strategic importance is more immediate and far less discussed: agrominerals. Agromineral resources are minerals and rocks that enhance soil productivity both chemically by providing nutrient sources to soils and plants and physically, by improving soil physical properties. In short, they are the raw material foundation of inorganic fertilizer production. With the exception of nitrogen, every major plant nutrient is derived from mined minerals. For a country where agriculture underpins the livelihoods of over 80% of the population, the question of where Malawi sources its fertilizers is a question about national survival. This article argues that agromineral resources are Malawi's most strategic and critical mineral resources, and that the country has both the geological endowment and the policy opportunity to act on that recognition.

Malawi's inorganic fertilizer requirements are split roughly equally between urea, which supplies nitrogen, and NPK-based products, which supply phosphorus and potassium, this article focuses on the latter. Nitrogen is synthesised from atmospheric gas through an energy-intensive industrial process, hence presents a more complex domestic production challenge and falls outside the scope of this discussion.

Agrominerals as Malawi's Most Critical and Strategic Resources

The persistence of hunger in a country endowed with arable land, reliable water sources, and agromineral potential is not merely a humanitarian concern, it is an economic one with measurable consequences at every level of national life. A population that cannot meet its basic nutritional needs cannot learn, work, or invest productively. This is not a theoretical proposition; Malawi's own data bears it out.

Agriculture contributes between 23% and 33% of GDP, rising to nearly 49% when the broader food system is included. With over 80% of the population dependent on rain-fed agriculture, fertilizer price shocks frequently translate into national economic disruptions. A report by the African Union Commission (AUC, 2015) titled The Cost of Hunger in Africa revealed that malnutrition costs Malawi 10.3% of its annual GDP. Independently, a panel of expert economists at a Copenhagen Consensus Conference in 2008 concluded that addressing malnourishment should rank among the top priorities for policymakers and development partners, given its compounding effects on health, schooling, and labour productivity.

Food shortages drive inflation, particularly in maize. During supply crises, maize prices have risen sharply, eroding household purchasing power across income groups. At the same time, reduced domestic food production forces the country to import maize, straining the limited foreign exchange reserves which are largely earned through agricultural exports which tightens the fiscal position at precisely the moment when food insecurity is most acute.

Research by the MwAPATA Institute and Michigan State University's Food Security Group found that 90% of the year-on-year increases in domestic fertilizer prices in Malawi are attributable to external factors like changes in global fertilizer prices, international freight costs, and Kwacha depreciation. Only 10% reflects changes in domestic margins. Supply chain disruptions, exemplified by the Russia-Ukraine war, have in the past delayed fertilizer arrivals past optimal planting windows, with direct consequences for yield. This means that Malawi's fertilizer price environment is almost entirely determined by forces outside its control. No subsidy programme, however well-designed, can insulate smallholder farmers from a structural vulnerability of that magnitude over the long term. Tellingly, despite the compelling economic case for food security interventions, investments with more visible short-term returns continue to take precedence in fiscal budgets.

The lack of viable substitutes for major plant nutrients, the centrality of fertilizer to Malawi's economic stability, and the structural supply chain vulnerability created by near-total import dependence collectively make agrominerals the country's most critical and strategically important mineral resources. This assessment, however, is not unique to Malawi. The USA, EU, and several other major economies have formally added phosphate and potash minerals to their critical minerals lists in recognition of exactly these dynamics. The difference is that those countries have acted on the classification. Malawi has not.

Malawi's Agro-Mineral Resources Potential

Malawi's position within the Chilwa Alkaline Province (CAP) gives it a geological endowment that is relevant to both technology minerals and agrominerals. The carbonatite and alkaline intrusions of the CAP are enriched in the macronutrients that are most critical to agriculture. Rock phosphate deposits have been identified at Tundulu and Songwe Hill. In addition, Lindian Resources' Kangankunde REE project will generate a phosphate by-product as part of its processing stream.

Critically, a 2020 study conducted by Dr Annock Chiona and colleagues at Newcastle University concluded that nepheline syenites from the CAP intrusions are high-potential alternative potash sources (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Distribution of carbonatite and alkaline intrusions in Malawi. The intrusions indicated with asterisk (*) are known nepheline syenites while those indicated with double stars (**) comprise both carbonatite and nepheline syenite.

Source: A.G. Chiona, et al. (2020). Petrology and geochemistry of selected nepheline syenites from Malawi and their potential as alternative potash sources

Beyond phosphate and potash, Malawi hosts a range of other agromineral deposits whose distribution and agricultural applications are summarised in Table 1 below.

Toward a National Agrominerals Strategy

The policy reforms required to develop Malawi's agromineral potential are not uniform in their time horizons. Some interventions can yield results in the short term; others require a decade or more of sustained commitment. A coherent national strategy must address both, sequencing actions according to what is immediately achievable while building toward structural self-sufficiency.

1. Exploration as a Strategic Priority

Given their national importance, agrominerals should be formally classified as strategic mineral resources, with government taking the lead in exploration through the empowerment of the Malawi Mining Investment Company (MAMICO) and the Geological Survey Department (GSD). Government investment in exploration will reduce risk, establish the evidence base, and create the necessary conditions to attract private capital into mining, downstream processing, and manufacturing.

2. Establishing a National Fertilizer Manufacturing Entity

Malawi should establish a state-owned fertilizer manufacturing entity to ensure reliable and affordable supply for domestic agriculture. The case for state leadership rests not on ideological grounds but on structural ones: fertilizer production in a food-insecure, landlocked country is a matter of national security, and national security objectives are consistently subordinated when production decisions are governed solely by commercial returns.

The private sector has already recognised the opportunity that government policy has yet to fully act on. Napoleon Dzombe's Mtalimanja Holdings is constructing a fertilizer manufacturing plant in Dowa. The plant will process imported raw materials, and however efficiently it operates, if the phosphate and potash inputs feeding it are sourced entirely from overseas, fertilizer prices and availability will remain vulnerable to supply chain disruptions. The missing link is domestic raw material production from Malawi's own geological endowment, and that is precisely where state intervention becomes indispensable.

Malawi's history with state-owned enterprises carries cautionary lessons that this proposal must take seriously and plan for deliberately. The entity should be established with an independent board appointed on technical and commercial merit, ring-fenced funding drawn from a dedicated levy on fertilizer imports, and a performance mandate tied explicitly to fertilizer price stability and domestic raw material utilisation rather than to revenue alone. A joint venture structure in which a strategic technical partner holds a minority stake alongside the state would introduce private sector discipline and operational expertise while preserving public control over the mandate. Botswana's Debswana model, in which the state and De Beers each hold 50%, offers one precedent for how state ownership and private technical competence can be structured to serve national strategic objectives without sacrificing operational credibility.

The investment case, when set against current subsidy expenditure, is more achievable than it may appear. The 2025/26 budget allocated MK 241.07 billion, approximately $139 million, to Farm Input Subsidy Programme (FISP) after a mid-term increase of 116%. That is a single season's subsidy commitment. Minbos Resources' phosphate fertilizer manufacturing plant in Angola, producing granulated phosphate fertilizer from domestically mined rock, was capitalised at $8 million in plant costs with total project investment under $65 million, within the range of what Malawi currently spends subsidising imported fertilizer in a single year.

3. Leveraging Agromineral By-Products from Existing Mining Operations

Developing mining projects takes time, often up to a decade from exploration to production, yet Malawi's food security needs are immediate. A practical near-term intervention is to leverage existing and pipeline mining operations to secure agromineral by-product streams while domestic capacity is being developed.

A clear example is Lindian Resources, which has indicated that its processing activities through the SARECO MREC facility will generate a phosphate-rich by-product stream with potential for fertilizer application. The company has already signalled engagement with stakeholders on offtake agreements with fertilizer distributors in Kazakhstan. For a country with a critical need for phosphate fertilizers, allowing such products to be fully absorbed into external markets without negotiating a domestic supply allocation would represent a material strategic oversight. Government should proactively engage with Lindian and similar operators to secure a portion of these materials for the domestic market at preferential terms, providing an immediate bridge while local agromineral industries are developed.

Similar engagement, whether through MDAs or other instruments, should be initiated for the Songwe and Tundulu projects, whose geology carries phosphate by-product potential alongside primary rare earth targets. The principle should be established as policy. Where mining operations generate agromineral by-products, domestic food security interests take precedence over full export allocation. This is not an unusual position, many resource-producing nations apply analogous domestic supply obligations to strategic commodities.

4. Empowering Artisanal and Small-Scale Miners

A critical but underappreciated component of an agrominerals strategy is the financial support and market integration of artisanal and small-scale miners (ASMs) already supplying agricultural minerals domestically. At present, there is a clear structural disconnect between local mining capacity and industrial demand.

Familjisa, for example, produces powdered gypsum for agricultural use, yet fertilizer blending companies continue to import gypsum at higher cost. Addressing this requires government support to integrate ASM domestic agromineral supply into the national fertilizer value chain.

Conclusion

The critical minerals conversation in Malawi is, in its broad direction, a sound one. Developing the country's geological endowment for economic benefit is a legitimate and achievable policy goal. But strategic clarity requires honest prioritisation, and on that measure, the current framing is incomplete.

What is required is a shift in policy framing: from fertilizer as a welfare expenditure to fertilizer raw materials as a strategic asset; from imported inputs as the default to domestic production as the long-term objective; from reactive subsidy management to proactive resource development.

Feeding the future of Malawi is a complex undertaking, but it is an achievable one. The minerals needed to begin are already in the ground. What remains is a decision by government, policymakers, and the private sector to work together so that Malawi can feed itself from its own natural resources.

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